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Former President Donald Trump’s promises that he’ll win New York are more empty bluster than evidence-based prediction. But the down-ballot reality is murkier for Democrats, amid signs Trump and his party are running stronger this year against Vice President Kamala Harris in key areas of the Empire State.
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found Harris leading Trump 66%-27% among likely voters in New York City — a healthy lead, but about 10 points short of President Joe Biden’s vote share in 2020, suggesting some slippage in the liberal city. Two statewide Siena polls have also shown Trump performing better than his 2020 vote share in New York State as a whole.
Meanwhile, an aggregate of internal House Republican battleground polling from six competitive New York congressional districts obtained by NBC News shows Trump winning those districts by an average of 1 percentage point. That doesn’t mean Trump is winning all of these districts, but it marks a significant change from 2020 when, on average, Biden won these same competitive districts by a roughly 8-point margin.
The six districts polled by the National Republican Congressional Committee in August, September and October are the 1st and 4th Districts on Long Island, the 17th, 18th and 19th Districts in the Hudson Valley, and the 22nd District around Syracuse. Importantly, pooling the districts together may flatten out variations among them: The 1st District, for example, is significantly more pro-Trump than the 22nd, around Syracuse, which can move the averages. And the Siena polls, which show mild movement for Trump statewide but more significant movement compared to 2020 in New York City, demonstrate how different areas could be reacting differently in this election.
But overall, these races include the most competitive around New York State, and all but the 18th are currently represented in Congress by a Republican.
Trump allies, like Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, were quick to highlight the opportunity.
“Kamala Harris is underperforming every single swing district in New York…compared to where Joe Biden was in 2020,” Stefanik told NBC News in an interview. “[Trump’s] vision for New York — and it is the correct one — is that Democrat-controlled states have had years and years of decay because of failed, far-left policies, and that’s why you’re seeing, since Trump ran in 2016, you’re seeing a tectonic shift in New York politics, increasing Republican numbers.”
New York is solidly Democratic at the presidential level, though Trump improved there by about a point from 2016 to 2020, earning 37.7% of the vote. He’s done two rallies in this blue state during the waning weeks of the election — one on Long Island, the other in the heart of New York City at Madison Square Garden. Democrats are not concerned about the top of the ticket, but for those down ballot — where Democrats lost five competitive House races here in 2022 — this election is a chance to earn back what was once theirs. A net gain of just four seats nationwide would flip House control back to Democrats.
The situation is only complicated by statewide politics and the woes of the state’s most prominent Democrats: New York Mayor Eric Adams’ recent indictment on corruption charges could bleed into the commuter-heavy suburbs, and a recent Siena poll of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s approval rating showed her trailing even Trump’s numbers.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who represents the Brooklyn area, downplayed any concerns about the impact of statewide or national figures from his side of the aisle on key House races in an interview with NBC News last month. He said House candidates would run their own races.
“They have their own track record of success and vision for the future, in terms of delivering for the people that they hope to represent,” Jeffries said.
But Republicans have their eye on some local issues.
“Progressive state issues like bail reform and congestion pricing remain challenging for Democrats in the New York suburbs,” longtime New York Republican operative Matt Coleman said. “Even as Hochul ‘paused’ implementation of $15 extra tolls for driving into Manhattan until after the election,” the issue is one that remains an albatross.
Privately, some Democrats concede these issues could have a negative impact on tight races.
“Hochul has taken her eye off the ball,” one Democratic operative working in New York races told NBC News, speaking anonymously to be more candid about one of the party’s key statewide leaders. “She has been negligent in taking threats seriously and that’s leaving key House races and other progressive priorities in jeopardy.”
But while polling and demographic shifts might have Republicans energized, Trump’s recent rally at Madison Square Garden, featuring racist and controversial comments about Puerto Ricans and other groups, shows the other side of the political coin: Trump’s unpredictability and the potential negative impact on House Republicans. Less than 24 hours after the event, GOP Reps. Mike Lawler and Anthony D’Esposito both came out to condemn the comments about Puerto Ricans.
“Obviously, voter turnout will drive the ultimate results,” Coleman, the GOP strategist concluded, “but the top of the ticket is playing a role in this.”
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