In Michigan, Democratic enthusiasm competes with disaffection

DETROIT — As she faces dissent from some parts of the traditional Democratic base, Vice President Kamala Harris is counting on expanded support from suburban voters and former Republicans to overcome the loss.

Nowhere is that gamble higher stakes than in Michigan, a key battleground state with a large Arab population — which has been outraged by Israel’s war in Gaza — in addition to large groups of Black men, young voters and other traditionally Democratic demographics that have been trending away from the party.

Rep. Haley Stevens, a Democrat who represents affluent Oakland County outside Detroit, said the energy in places like her district make her confident Harris can overcome any defections from the base and beat former President Donald Trump.

“It’s a close race and everyone knows it, and that’s why it all comes down to operation, and Harris has it,” she said, referring to the get-out-the-vote effort.

The congresswoman said she’s been blown away by the turnout at canvass kickoffs and Democratic events in places like Bloomfield Hills, where Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, grew up, that Democrats flipped only recently but have become powerhouses of liberal volunteerism and donations.

“These are old Republican neighborhoods,” she said. “The Democratic Party for many people has become a religion. It’s become part of the practice of their life. ... Just a few years ago, they were casual Republicans.”

That sentiment helps explain why Harris has been campaigning with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney in the state and is now touting the endorsement of former Rep. Fred Upton, a Republican who represented his southwest Michigan district from 1987 until last year.

Trump narrowly won Michigan’s suburbs 51%-48% in 2020, but recent polls show Harris now leading there in the double digits, driven by the realignment of white, college-educated voters and women concerned about abortion rights.

In suburban Detroit’s Macomb County, which Trump won in 2016 and 2020, Republican Ron Robinson, a member of the Utica City Council running for a competitive Michigan House seat, said there’s evidence of Harris making gains in his district.

“I’ve been in every precinct at least once,” Robinson said in an interview this week at a campaign event. “There’s a lot more Harris-for-president signs than there were Biden-for-president signs. … I mean, say what you want. Kamala Harris has put on an amazing campaign, and she’s definitely connected with a lot of people.”

Nervous energy in Detroit

Polls in Michigan have consistently shown a dead heat between Trump and Harris, with operatives in both parties conveying cautious optimism while acknowledging it’s a coin flip.

“A complete jump ball,” said Dennis Lennox, a Republican strategist who works in Michigan. “Nobody really knows what will happen.”

Beyond the suburbs, Republicans see opportunities to peel off traditionally Democratic voters, like Black men.

“Trump has to run up the score in 75 or so [mostly rural] counties that he will win and hope that his numbers among Black men aren’t a mirage,” Lennox said.

Former President Barack Obama was greeted by a large and energetic crowd Tuesday night at a get-out-the-vote rally at Detroit’s downtown convention center. Families streamed in wearing vintage Obama T-shirts and fresh Harris prints, ready for the former president’s stump speech staples, like “Fired up, ready to go!” and “Don’t boo — vote.”

But there were jitters among the crowd. Pamela, an AT&T retiree and Harris canvasser who asked that her last name not be used, said she worries — like Obama does — that Black men are resisting Harris, who would be the first Black woman to serve in the Oval Office.

“I’ve been going door to door for the past three months, and I’ve had a lot of problems with Black men,” said Pamela, who is Black. “They’re angry about something.”

Elsewhere at the rally, LaSalle Washington, rejected that notion.

“All this about Black males ain’t going to vote for her? There might be a few, just like if a white woman runs, there’s going to be some white women that don’t vote for her, but no significant numbers,” said Washington, 74. “I’m a Black man. All my friends are voting for her. Case closed.”

Where Liz Cheney's endorsement hits different

Even more acute has been the resentment over the war in Gaza among the state’s large Arab and Muslim communities, especially after Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon.

Recent polls of Michigan Arab Americans show them breaking roughly evenly between Harris and Trump, while they have typically broken closer to 2-to-1 for Democrats in recent elections.

Many families from southern Lebanon emigrated to Dearborn, not far from Detroit, during earlier Israeli military action in the 1970s and ’80s. Some U.S. citizens who live in Dearborn have been killed in recent weeks by Israeli airstrikes while tending to family back in Lebanon. Now, many Lebanese American and Palestinian American voters in Michigan say they will not vote for Harris under any circumstance.

“The No. 1 issue is the conflict in the Middle East,” said Michgian state Rep. Alabas Farhat, a Lebanese American Democrat who represents Dearborn. “You walk down these streets right here in Dearborn and knock on a door, everyone will tell you how they’re being impacted firsthand by this conflict."

Trump has capitalized.

“Why would Muslims support Lyin’ Kamala Harris, when she embraces Muslim-hating — and very dumb person — Liz Cheney?” Trump said at a rally in Michigan last week, before invoking Vice President Dick Cheney and the Iraq War. “Her father brought years of war and death to the Middle East. He killed many Arabs.”

Lebanese American businessman Massad Boulos, the father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany Trump,, has led Republicans in pitching Donald Trump as the anti-war candidate who will bring peace to the Middle East.

Earlier this month, Boulos organized a glitzy town-hall-style event for voters of Middle Eastern descent at the Renaissance Center in downtown Detroit featuring prominent GOP voices like Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump, Trump’s daughter-in-law.

Some Muslim and Arab voters say they plan to vote for Trump to punish Democrats, while even more say they will vote for anti-war third-party candidates like Jill Stein. The Abandon Harris campaign, made up of Muslim activists, has been aggressively organizing a community to vote for anyone but Harris.

Giving Republicans ‘a seat at the table’

Democrats feel confident they can make up for those shortcomings.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a popular Democrat, said she is confident about her party’s ground game in her state. And she signaled that she believes support for Harris from Republicans like Upton could be key to the race.

“I was grateful today to see Fred Upton add his name to the growing chorus of Republicans who are supporting Kamala Harris and Tim Walz,” Whitmer said, responding to a question Thursday from NBC News at a campaign event in the Detroit suburb of Rochester. “Republicans don’t have to agree with 100% of what we offer, but they have a seat at the table, and that’s important.”

State Rep. Jennifer Conlin, a Democrat from Ann Arbor, believes there is a silent faction of Harris voters not being counted.

“I’m sitting here looking at Trump signs,” Conlin said by telephone while taking a break from canvassing in a more Republican part of her district. “But, having said that, there are so many Democrats who just are not comfortable with putting out their signs for Harris. … I have a lot of Republicans who are ‘Never Trumpers.’”

Some Republicans, especially those in swingy parts of the state like the Grand Rapids suburbs, seem acutely aware of that.

Paul Hudson, the Republican running to unseat Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten in a competitive western Michigan district, said he was “too superstitious to make predictions” and stopped short of committing to support Trump.

“You can’t turn on your TV without getting bombarded with political ads from the top of the ticket all the way down,” Hudson said. “This is the center of the political universe, here in Michigan.”

Alex Seitz-Wald reported from Camden, Maine; Henry Gomez reported from Detroit, Michigan.