Rafael strengthens to a Category 1 hurricane

Tropical Storm Rafael strengthened into a Category 1 Hurricane Tuesday evening near the Cayman Islands, the National Hurricane Center said.

Rafael was located 20 miles southeast of Little Cayman, with maximum sustained winds of at least 75 mph, the center said in a 7:20 p.m. update. It was moving northwest at 15 mph.

A hurricane warning was in effect Tuesday for the Cayman Islands, and the Cuban provinces Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. Havana was also covered by the warning, which signals hurricane conditions, including destructive winds and flooding, within 36 hours. 

A storm surge of 6-9 feet along the southern coast of Cuba was possible overnight, federal forecasters said.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas, meanwhile a tropical storm warning is in effect Jamaica, for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.

Rafael is forecast to move even farther westward as it continues its trek north over the next few days, federal forecasters said. The storm was forecast to be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

It was expected to further strengthen before making landfall in Cuba, the center said Tuesday afternoon.

The storm could reach Category 2 status, which requires sustained winds of at least 96 mph, by the time it reaches Cuba, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said in a video update Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are forecast to hit the Cayman Islands by Tuesday evening, then in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions were forecast in Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday. 

The storm will also bring heavy rainfall to the western Caribbean through early Thursday, including 3 to 6 inches across western Cuba. Isolated higher totals up to 10 inches are anticipated across the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba “which could lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides,” the hurricane center said.

Then heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeast U.S. by mid-to late week, with 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. 

The southwestern corner of Florida, including the Keys, could see tornadoes starting Wednesday morning and extending into Wednesday afternoon, Brennan said.