Storm Ashley to hit the UK on Sunday

Storm Ashley

Storm Ashley is going to hit the UK on Sunday into Monday, bringing heavy rain and very strong winds. It’s the first named storm of the season, which starts each September.

Signs of a potential storm this weekend have been signalled in weather models for a few days. However, the problem was that they were giving slightly differing outcomes in terms of where the worst of the winds would hit and exactly how strong they could be.

There is still some uncertainty, but confidence in the forecast has grown enough for a storm to be named and weather warnings refined to offer more information than earlier this week.

Weather warnings issued

The Met Office updated its weather warnings this morning – slightly tweaking a previous yellow warning and adding an amber warning.

The amber warning covers western Scotland and is where the greatest impacts are most likely to be experienced from Storm Ashley.

The yellow warning covers a wider area that includes Scotland, Northern Ireland, along with northwestern parts of England and Wales.

In the warning areas, gusts of wind could reach 60-80mph in some locations – especially around the coasts and over the hills.

It’ll also be windy outside of the warning areas, but lower wind speeds elsewhere aren’t expected to be as impactful.

Possible impacts

With gusts of wind in the 60-80mph range, this will bring the possibility of a variety of impacts.

The most likely impacts are disruption to travel and power supplies. Ferry crossings are likely to be affected, as well as some exposed road bridges and rail routes.

There could also be some damage to trees and buildings – especially in the amber warning area.

An additional hazard for coastal locations is that the strong winds will combine with high tides, bringing rough seas and dangerously large waves that could cause some coastal flooding.

Powerful jet stream

The change to stormy weather is being brought about by a powerful jet stream high above the Atlantic Ocean.

As well as picking up speed – reaching around 200mph at 30,000ft – it will also be directed straight towards the UK.

Images: Tropical Tidbits – showing jet stream forecast (orange, red and purple)

In effect, the jet stream will act as an atmospheric superhighway, developing the storm and then catapulting it towards us.

What about next week?

Although Storm Ashley will move away quickly on Monday, with the winds easing, it will stay quite blustery for many.

Thereafter, the weather is looking mixed overall. Whilst there’ll be some drier, brighter days, at times there’ll be showers or longer spells of rain – the heaviest of which will tend to be in the north and west.

In the meantime, it’s worth keeping an eye on the forecast this weekend, as there’s a possibility that the warnings could be updated.