Uncomfortable Nikki Haley backers weigh their options with Election Day looming

Kamala Harris’ deployment of prominent Republican Trump critics hasn’t convinced a new focus group of voters who backed Nikki Haley in the GOP presidential primary.

But even if many of these Haley voters won’t cast their ballot for Harris this fall, the constant controversy surrounding Trump may cost him votes this fall — a dynamic typified by the almost universally negative reaction to the harsh and at times racist rhetoric at Donald Trump’s weekend rally in New York City.

Such reaction was seen among the 11 focus group participants in a new NBC News Deciders Focus Group conducted Monday evening, produced in collaboration with Syracuse University and the research firms Engagious and Sago. For many of these Haley supporters, particularly the seven Republicans and three independents, the episode was a reminder of why they soured on Trump in the first place. 

“These voters show us two camps of Nikki Haley backers: those so turned off by former President Trump that they’ll vote third-party, stay home or even vote for Vice President Harris to keep Trump out of the White House, and those who will hold their nose and vote Trump because he’s the Republican nominee and they’re Republicans," said Margaret Talev, the director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship in Washington.

"Most of the voters we heard from have known for months which camp they’re in," she continued. "Endorsement for Harris from the Cheneys, or ex-Trump Cabinet officials, weren’t moving the needle, though the offensive Trump rally at Madison Square Garden might yet sway some still weighing their choices.”

Jennifer S., a 49-year-old Republican from Pennsylvania who voted for Trump in 2020 but is also torn about whether to do so again or write in someone else, brought up the rally to criticize the “racist rhetoric,” later saying the rally was a “terrible reflection of the party.” 

“I’m not going to vote for Harris because of it. It still makes me torn. If they had done a very professional event, maybe that would’ve moved the needle a little towards him or something like that. But it keeps me in a place where it makes it hard to fill in that oval,” she said. 

Cristel T., a 59-year-old Republican from Georgia who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 and plans to vote for Harris in 2024, said the rally was “so typical” of what the GOP has become under Trump. 

“This is not the Republican Party that I know. The hate and the ugliness,” she said. 

She added: “That really angers me, that people talk like that about other human beings, the ugliness. It just totally turns me off.”

Even those who were still aboard the Trump train panned the rally. 

“It’s repulsive,” said Dale J., a 67-year-old from Minnesota who voted for Trump in 2020 and plans to do so again. 

“It’s disgusting,” said Treasa S., a 68-year-old from North Carolina who backed a third-party candidate in 2020 but plans to vote for Trump this time. 

Four of these 11 voters plan to vote for Trump or are leaning that way, with another choosing between Trump and a write-in or third party. Two are voting for libertarian Chase Oliver, and the remaining four are either voting for or leaning toward voting for Harris.  

Harris and her campaign have made a big push in the closing weeks of the campaign to make inroads with moderate voters, amplifying recent criticism from former White House chief of staff John Kelly and campaigning with former Wyoming GOP Rep. Liz Cheney, who served as the top Republican on the House committee investigating the 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. 

On the other side of the aisle, while NBC News previously reported that Trump's and Haley's aides have been talking about a potential campaign appearance together, a senior adviser told NBC News on Monday that a joint appearance was increasingly unlikely because finding a good time had been challenging.

During a Tuesday night appearance on Fox News, Haley criticized the comments Trump allies made at his Madison Square Garden rally, as well as how the campaign and allies are talking about Latinos and women.

"This bromance and this masculinity stuff, I mean, it borders on edgy to the point that it's going to make women uncomfortable," she said. "That is not the way to win people who are concerned about Trump’s style."

But she went on to reiterate that she still stands with Trump.

"His style and his wording isn’t always the best. But his policies, I am choosing policy over personality," she added.

While the focus group happened one night before Haley made those comments, it was clear the group still held her in high esteem.

"Hearing reminders from Haley that she supports Trump would help mollify some of her voters who worry Trump is beyond the pale, particularly after the Madison Square Garden rally,” said Rich Thau, the president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions. 

While most of these voters were familiar with Cheney hitting the trail for Harris, none said Cheney’s role as Harris' unofficial ambassador to disaffected Republicans moved the needle for them. 

Jason L., a 34-year-old Republican from Arizona who voted third party in 2020 and plans to vote for the libertarian candidate this fall, said Cheney’s presence on the campaign trail may have resonated more with him if “there had been concessions from the Democrats.”

“Instead of bringing the Democrats towards disaffected Republicans, the Republicans who have been disaffected have just moved their policies more towards Democrats,” he said, pointing to how he feels that Cheney moved toward Harris on issues like abortion. 

“If these Republicans had moved the Democrats their way, then I would’ve agreed with maybe some of that rhetoric and maybe would’ve been more motivated,” Jason L. continued.

Kelly’s new criticism — that Trump spoke positively about Adolf Hitler when he was in office and that he “falls into the general definition of fascist” — also didn’t appear to change many minds. 

“It’s concerning, but at the same time, there’s enough political safe checks in place. I believe that the country would be all right,” said 30-year-old Zach R. from Wisconsin, an independent who voted for Trump in 2020 and is leaning toward doing so again. 

Treasa S., the North Carolina Republican voting for Trump, said that she doesn't view Harris as a "strong leader." She's been frustrated about the "economy and the rising costs of goods," and even while she believes Trump is "egotistical" and is worried about his "overall demeanor," she said she plans to vote for Trump because of her confidence in his running mate, Ohio Republican Sen. JD Vance.

"There’s still a chance Trump’s going to go to jail. I mean, that’s not off the table with all the lawsuits and stuff against him. And so then we have to look at who’s going to be the leader if that happens," she said.

"I don’t care for either one of the candidates, neither one of their policies align with what I want," she said.

For Barbara Z., a 62-year-old Republican from Michigan who voted for Trump in 2020 and already voted for him again in 2024, the choice is simple: "I’m a true Republican and I’m going to vote Republican."

"I really liked the idea that Nikki Haley was a woman, and I thought she would have more closer values to mine than Trump. But he is our Republican candidate, so that's who I picked," she said.

She added that she'd sooner not vote than vote for a Democrat. "I would’ve preferred a different Republican candidate. That’s clear."

Jason L., one of the two libertarian voters in the focus group, framed his decision as a “protest vote.” While he said he was getting “closer to voting for Trump,” he feels “pretty confident that Arizona is going to go for Trump,” and doesn’t feel compelled to choose a major party candidate. 

The other, John D., a 49-year-old from Wisconsin who also went third party in 2020, said he will “more than likely vote libertarian Chase Oliver, because Trump is a known quantity and Harris hasn’t been able to explain how or why things would be different than they have been the past four years.”

Asked what he’d say if Trump asked to change his mind, John replied: “I won’t vote for you. You can’t unring that bell. The things that have occurred have occurred. You can’t go back and change history and you are not going to change.”

Among the four voters planning to back Harris this fall, all but one of them voted for Biden in 2020 — meaning Trump had lost their vote long before Harris entered the race in July. (One of these voters is a registered Democrat who voted in her state’s open presidential primary for Haley.)

The two Republicans backing Harris made clear that Trump disqualified himself in their eyes. 

“She is a lot better candidate than the Republican one. I’m a Republican, a conservative Republican, but then again, look who we have to vote for. … You can’t go there. So I had to switch and vote for her, no questions asked,” said Melody S., a 55-year-old from Arizona. 

“He should be in jail,” she said of Trump. 

Only one voter, 40-year-old Chris P. from Michigan, backed Trump in 2020 and is considering voting for Harris now. Calling himself at about 75% for Harris, he’s not considering Trump as an alternative,  

“At this point, I’m afraid of what he would do if he got put back in power,” he said.