What does Yahya Sinwar's death mean for the Middle East?

Yahya Sinwar, a founder of Hamas' military wing, talks during a rally in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, in 2011. Adel Hana/AP hide caption

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Adel Hana/AP

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar at the hands of the Israeli military in Gaza Wednesday has prompted celebration and concern alike in Israel and beyond. The killing of the man widely held responsible for the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks in Israel represents a potential inflection point in the devastating and widening conflict that has continued into its second year.

The militant group confirmed Sinwar’s death in a statement released Friday. The Hamas political bureau said that it was “painful and distressing” to lose its leader, and declared that he has now become “an icon for the Palestinian people.”

The Palestinian militant group killed some 1,200 people and took some 250 hostages during the surprise attacks, according to Israeli officials.

In response, Israel launched a military campaign in Gaza that has killed more than 42,400 Palestinians and injured more than 99,000, according to Gaza's Health Ministry.

Future of the Gaza war

Most immediately, Sinwar's killing in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip serves as a reminder that the group's military forces have continued to operate against Israeli troops, albeit in a far less structured manner than was the case in the conflict's early stages.

The network of tunnels under Gaza has provided shelter and maneuverability for Hamas fighters. But the fact Sinwar was located and killed above ground suggests, Israeli's military leaders have said, that the group's options for safety are continuing to shrink.

But Sinwar’s death may complicate efforts to achieve one of Israel's goals for the military occupation of Gaza that began 12 months ago.

"Killing Sinwar means Israel has no one to talk to about the hostages in Gaza," said Kareem Jouda, a lawyer from Gaza. "I believe they are either killed, missing, or with groups that no longer have contact with the rest of the movement."

He said Hamas was no longer a coherent group as it was a year ago, amid heavily disrupted communications networks, continuous losses of its leadership and existing decentralization. "They can do absolutely nothing bigger than what they have been doing," he added.

At Israel's border with Gaza Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant called on remaining Hamas fighters in Gaza to take this moment to surrender.

"Yahya Sinwar ended his life being beaten, persecuted, fleeing for his life, not in command of his organization and only taking care of himself," he said. "This is the time to go out, release the hostages, raise your hands, surrender."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Sinwar’s death the "beginning of the day after Hamas," and in a recorded video message said his demise indicated Hamas "will no longer rule Gaza."

A demonstrator holds a sign about the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during a protest calling for a cease-fire deal and the immediate release of hostages held by Hamas on Thursday, in Tel Aviv, Israel. Ariel Schalit/AP hide caption

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Ariel Schalit/AP

He also told Palestinian residents of Gaza that it represented an opportunity to break free from what he termed the group's "tyranny." Hamas won Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, then took over Gaza by force in a power struggle with its rival Palestinian faction in 2007, and no elections have been held since then.

"The elimination of Sinwar perhaps symbolizes the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza, and the end of the beginning of the regional war against Iran and its proxies," Israel's former chief of military intelligence, Amos Yadlin, wrote on the social media platform X. Yadlin said creative solutions that include a weeklong cease-fire might help encourage other Arab countries to help build an alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza. "The ball is in the hands of the Israeli government."

Hostages key to any cease-fire

Israeli authorities believe there are still 101 hostages held inside Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead, and for many of Israel's political elite, their return has now become the most crucial element to any potential cessation of hostilities, not just in Gaza but the wider region.

"Now, more than ever, we must act in every way possible to bring back the 101 hostages who are still being held in horrific conditions," Israeli President Isaac Herzog wrote on social media.

Benny Gantz, a former head of the Israeli military and defense ministry and political rival of Netanyahu, posted on social media that Sinwar's death sent a message to Israel's enemies that the country's military would not rest until they "pay for their crimes." But he also said it should be leveraged to see hostages returned, while suggesting that Israeli forces would continue to operate inside Gaza for years to come.

Netanyahu noted this was "an important moment in the war," and insisted it was his "highest commitment" that the country's military and intelligence services would continue "with all our strength" to return the hostages.

In a public statement, the Israeli prime minister even promised a form of amnesty for surviving members of Hamas if they helped return captives. "Whoever lays down his weapon and returns our hostages, we will allow him to go out and live," Netanyahu said.

Daniel Lifshitz, whose grandfather Oded is among the Israeli hostages still presumed to be alive in Gaza, said in a press conference both Sinwar and Netanyahu had previously provided barriers to a cease-fire deal that would lead to the release of Israelis held captive "for their own interests." In light of Sinwar's death, Lifshitz insisted it was now "the time" for the Israeli leader to strike an agreement. "Sinwar was a major obstacle to a deal for months now, this obstacle has been removed," he said.

At a rally in Tel Aviv Thursday night for family members of those held captive, there was some celebration but also concern among attendees. Dana Leitersdorf said she was emotional after a difficult year, but also worried by news of the Hamas leader's death.

"Now the hostages are in the hands of very brutal, unorganized men," she said. "They can be killed just for fun, or just because they want their revenge."

Others, like 60-year-old Yael Adar, whose son Tamir was killed and his body seized during last year’s Oct. 7 attack, were glad about the Israeli military's "success" and the "justice" served against Hamas. She wanted her son to be buried with dignity, and called on the Israeli government, global leaders and the mediators — among them the United States, Egypt and Qatar — to "use this moment to find a way to bring back all hostages right away."

Palestinian reaction to Sinwar's death

Following the Hamas leader's killing, political groups in the Israeli-occupied West Bank issued a statement calling for "a day of rage against the war, and the siege, onto the north of Gaza."

Khaled Ali, a lawyer and human rights activist in Egypt who had considered a run for that country's presidency before withdrawing in 2018, bid "farewell to the martyr" Sinwar, whose death, he said, represented a “legendary departure and a painful loss of an exceptional leader who passed through the defeated Arab lands with honor, pride and courage."

Meanwhile in Gaza itself, the humanitarian crisis has continued unabated, and continued to draw stern statements from international leaders, including several United Nations agencies.

Palestinian women and their children walk though destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Jabaliya, northern Gaza Strip, after Israeli forces withdrew from the area, on May 31. Enas Rami/AP hide caption

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Enas Rami/AP

"Almost everyone in Gaza is going hungry according to the latest assessment," said World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, as he reiterated demands for a cease-fire. "The best medicine is peace."

Regional and global reaction

President Biden said Sinwar's death was "a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world." Militants on Oct. 7 took seven U.S. citizens hostage, with four of them still believed to be held alive by Hamas in Gaza.

Biden said he would speak with Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders "soon," to discuss "ending this war once and for all."

"There is now the opportunity for a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike," Biden said in a statement issued by the White House. "Yahya Sinwar was an insurmountable obstacle to achieving all of those goals. That obstacle no longer exists. But much work remains before us."

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who called his Saudi and Qatari counterparts Thursday, according to statements issued by both countries' foreign ministries, said that Sinwar had personally "rebuffed efforts by the United States and its partners to bring this war to a close through an agreement that would return the hostages to their families and alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people."

Blinken said the U.S. would now "redouble its efforts with partners to end this conflict" and "chart a new path forward that will enable the people of Gaza to rebuild their lives." Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz appealed for "support and assistance" to advance Israel's goals of creating a "new reality in Gaza," alongside "the immediate release" of the hostages.

Daniel Estrin reported from Tel Aviv, Israel. Willem Marx reported from London, Abu Bakr Bashir contributed reporting from Gaza.