Where Trump's standing with Puerto Rican voters will be put to the test: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down the key areas where Donald Trump's standing with Puerto Rican voters will be tested. Plus, senior national politics reporter Mat Dixon looks at how Trump is at risk of drowning out his own closing argument.

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Where Trump’s support among Puerto Rican voters will be put to the test

Steve Kornacki

Donald Trump’s campaign appearance in Allentown, Pa., this evening comes amid questions over whether the fallout from his Madison Square Garden rally will cost him support among Puerto Rican voters. 

The stakes for Trump are clear enough. He already gained ground with Hispanics of all origins, including Puerto Ricans, in 2020 and polls have shown him poised to do even better this time around. And with its rapidly growing Hispanic population, Pennsylvania is exactly the kind of state where this newfound support could give Trump a decisive edge — if it actually materializes on Election Day. 

Allentown is a majority-Hispanic city of 125,000, and about one-quarter of its overall population is of Puerto Rican descent — one of the highest concentrations of Puerto Ricans anywhere in the U.S. The city remains a Democratic bastion, but Trump did make inroads there in 2020, cutting his deficit to 35 points, from 42 in 2016.

 Allentown is also part of a string of small and mid-size cities in eastern Pennsylvania with sizable Hispanic populations, including Reading, Bethlehem, Lebanon, Hazleton and Easton. The specific concentration of Puerto Ricans varies, but in all of these cities, Trump improved his performance in 2020 compared to 2016, even as he lost ground in Pennsylvania overall. 

With Kamala Harris aiming for further gains in Philadelphia’s densely populated suburbs and other similar places, further growth with Hispanic voters may be essential to Trump’s math in the Keystone State.

Pennsylvania’s polls will close at 8 p.m. EST on Election Night, but we may get a big clue about Trump’s Puerto Rican support before that. Majority-Hispanic Osceola County in Florida, just south of Orlando, is a large county (population about 450,000 — and growing) that’s about one-third Puerto Rican. In 2020, Trump lost Osceola by 14 points, a big improvement from his 25-point defeat in 2016. Since Florida reports its votes very efficiently, we should have a sense in the 7 p.m. EST hour how Trump is faring in Osceola, which could be a portent for what’s to come in Pennsylvania.

It’s possible, of course, that Trump won’t suffer any significant loss of Hispanic support, despite the current media firestorm. For that matter, it’s also possible that we’re looking in the wrong place to gauge potential fallout from the rally. Polling has consistently shown a particular aversion to Trump’s provocative antics among college-educated suburbanites, voters who moved strongly against him in 2016 and even further so in 2020. Could there be a meaningful slice of these voters who have been reluctantly resigned to backing Trump this time who now decide that they can’t?

Trump threatens to drown out his closing message in the final days of the election

By Matt Dixon

“Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

That has been the question posed by Donald Trump at the start of each of his campaign rallies over the past week.  

Pieced together, those more than half a dozen swing state events, coupled with major interviews with conservative media personalities, have served as his makeshift closing argument to an intensely divided electorate in this historic presidential race.

For months, Trump and Kamala Harris have outlined vastly different visions for the future of the country, but with Election Day a week away, both are using eerily similar messages to try to close the deal.

Harris has spent her closing weeks trying to convince a polarized nation that Trump is determined to upend political norms, believes the Jan. 6 attack was a good thing, wants to befriend authoritarian leaders across the globe and intends to use the power of the federal government to attack his political enemies. 

Meanwhile, Trump has spent his closing weeks trying to convince a polarized nation that he is determined to upend political norms, believes the Jan. 6 attack was a good thing, wants to befriend authoritarian leaders across the globe and intends to use the power of the federal government to attack his political enemies. 

The challenge for both sides is to convince the country that the way they view the world is the correct one. And for Trump, it’s also about sticking to his message.

During his daily rallies over the past week in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, Trump has tried to outline what he would like to be the backbone of his policy pitch to American voters.

But each attempt at amplifying those positions in recent days has easily been overshadowed by the same oft-used zingers that prompt the huge audience applause that Trump craves. Those include, among many others, talking about Harris’ intellect — he regularly says she is “stupid” — calling the United States the world’s “garbage can,” suggesting without evidence that Harris is drunk or on drugs, regularly comparing himself to the inventor of the paper clip, threatening to jail political opponents and talking about certain private body parts of legendary golfer Arnold Palmer.

Read more from Matt →

Speaking of closing arguments: Harris will ask voters to “turn the page” on the Trump era during an address tonight at the site of the former president’s Jan. 6 speech. Read more →

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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