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PHOENIX — Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican who supports Kamala Harris for president, is vexed by the disconnect between Arizona’s presidential race and what’s happening down the ballot.
Polls show Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake, the quintessential Donald Trump acolyte, losing a significant slice of the former president’s voters to her Democratic rival, Rep. Ruben Gallego.
“There’s something teflon about Donald Trump that just makes no sense to me. Kari Lake says literally the same things as Donald Trump and people roll their eyes. And when Donald Trump says that, they clap,” Giles said in an interview. “I can’t — there’s no rational explanation for that.”
That disconnect captures a unique dynamic in battleground Arizona: A consequential race for Senate and a pair of ultracompetitive House elections are operating in their own mini-universe, largely detached from the marquee presidential contest — and each other. A ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution hasn’t delivered an obvious boost for Democratic candidates that they had hoped for.
Instead, a mix of ticket-splitting, shifting party coalitions and candidate contrasts are driving the races in this historically Republican stronghold that has become a top swing state.
In the House, two Republican congressmen are aiming to fend off a pair of Democratic former state legislators. Seven-term GOP Rep. David Schweikert is seeking to hang on against Amish Shah, a doctor, in the blue-trending Phoenix suburbs after winning by less than 1 point in 2022. And in the Tucson area, freshman Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is facing a rematch against Kirsten Engel after previously winning by under 2 points.
Arizona’s two highly competitive House races
Both of these House races are rated as “toss-ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report With Amy Walter. One thing operatives in both parties agree on is that they will come down to the quartet of candidates, not the strength of the presidential or Senate contenders.
“All four have distinct personalities,” said a Democratic operative working on House races, who spoke candidly on the condition of anonymity. “Whoever ends up winning these races — it’s clearly going to be because voters are choosing someone, not just following the top of the ticket.”
Democrats say Gallego’s strength isn’t automatically elevating their candidates, while Republicans say Lake hasn’t been an albatross for them. Democrats argue the abortion ballot initiative will help with turnout, but acknowledge they still have work to do in convincing voters that the GOP candidates are a threat to legal abortion.
“Arizonans since 2018 have been some of the most sophisticated ticket-splitters in the country,” said a GOP strategist working on House races, noting that in 2022, Schweikert and Ciscomani won despite Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters losing both of those districts. “The races are running on their own track, and that includes the ballot initiatives. You could see a voter vote for Trump-Gallego-Schweikert.”
“I would be curious what their thinking is,” the operative joked. “But the polling seems to suggest they do exist.”
Trump’s team has also noticed Lake underperforming.
“The big thing to point to is that President Trump doesn’t ride on the coattails of others and he’s his own candidate,” a Trump campaign official said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly about Lake’s struggles. “That’s a different race.”
An ongoing national realignment adds another layer of mystery in Arizona. Democrats are attracting more white college graduates in the suburbs, a key voting demographic, sparking some concerns within the GOP.
“The political environment is worse for Republicans than it was in 2020 in a few suburban districts, namely Omaha and throughout Arizona. This is a concern with three valued incumbents: [Nebraska Rep. Don] Bacon, Ciscomani, Schweikert,” Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a GOP super PAC, wrote in a memo to allies obtained by NBC News.
But Democrats also face a threat of defections among a slice of Latino voters, particularly men without a college degree, who could help Republicans make up ground elsewhere.
Gallego, as a Latino male veteran, said his background gives him a built-in advantage with those voters that Harris may be struggling with. He said moderate Republicans who used to support the late Sen. John McCain are also “part of the key” to a statewide victory.
Some voters with fluid partisan preferences won’t split their votes.
“I’ve been a Republican my entire life. I’m actually, for the first time in my life, voting straight down the Democratic ticket,” Roberta Voss, a former GOP state legislator, said at a roundtable in the Phoenix area with Gallego on Thursday. “One criteria for me: Did Trump endorse you? You don’t have my vote. Simple as that.”
The individual dynamics indicate that the issue set won’t decide the races: Republicans are largely focused on issues like crime, border security and inflation, while Democrats are capitalizing on their advantages on health care, abortion and protecting Social Security.
In another wrinkle, a new survey commissioned by the nonpartisan Inside Elections found far-right GOP Rep. Eli Crane underperforming Trump by 10 points in his red district, suggesting that at least some rural or Native American voters are open to splitting their tickets. Crane remains favored against Democratic rival Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation.
One theory of the Trump-Crane split: The freshman lawmaker may be paying a price for joining seven other GOP lawmakers to overthrow former Speaker Kevin McCarthy midsession last year.
“I think Eli Crane has turned off some Republicans who were upset by him taking out McCarthy,” Arizona Republican consultant Marson said. “So now you have a Navajo running against him that’ll juice up the Native American voters. And that could also present a problem for Eli Crane.”
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