Trump leverages economic discontent, extends his appeal -- and breaks mold: ANALYSIS

2 settimane fa 5

Former President Donald Trump leveraged economic discontent, extended his appeal beyond his core support groups and overturned long-term political trends in the 2024 presidential election, driving his unique political style to a remarkable comeback.

While ABC News had not projected a winner by early Wednesday morning, Trump's performance broke the mold across a variety of measures.

Among them, Hispanic voters, long a solidly Democratic group, voted for Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump by just 53-45% -- the closest margin since exit polls began in 1976. That 8-point win for Harris compares with 33 points for President Joe Biden among Hispanic voters four years ago.

Trump's gain chiefly was among Hispanic men -- a win by 10 points, after losing them by 23 points in 2020. Given the country's increasingly diverse population, Republican competitiveness among Hispanic voters could represent a sea change in the nation's political landscape.

At the same time, diversity declined in this election: It was the first time since 1996 that racial and ethnic minorities did not increase their share of the electorate, even if by a scant point or two. In all, they went from just 13% of voters in 1992 (with the rest, 87%, white) to 33% in 2020 (with 67% white). In this election, white voters accounted for 71%, a 4-point increase; minority voters moved down to 29%.

The main gain among white people was those who don't have a four-year college degree, +4 points as a share of the electorate and a broadly pro-Trump group.

White people overall voted 55-43% for Trump. That compared with Harris wins of 53-45% among Hispanic people (an historically tight margin, as noted) 56-38% among Asian voters and 86-12% among Black voters, a typical result for Democrats.

Another break from the past was in terms of straight-ahead partisanship. Thirty-four percent of voters identified themselves as Republicans, 32% as Democrats and 34% as independents. However tight the margin, it was the first time in exit polls that Republicans outnumbered Democrats nationally.

There was a huge gap between young men (roughly evenly split, 49-47%, Harris-Trump) and young women (+27 points for Harris, 63-36%). Still, Harris' vote from young women was down 4 points from Biden's in 2020.

Harris won women by 54-44%; Trump won men by an identical margin. That 20-point gender gap almost exactly matches the average since 1996. Tellingly, though, Harris' support from women was 3 points lower than Biden's in 2020.

In another dramatic shift, Harris underperformed Biden by 19 points among first-time voters (even if a small group, 8% of the electorate). They went 54-45% for Trump over Harris, after backing Biden over Trump by 64-32%. Trump doubled his support in this group.

College-educated voters were about as good for Harris as they were for Biden – but Trump did 4 points better among non-college voters than he did four years ago. Non-college voters, notably, are more economically vulnerable: Fifty-three percent in that group said they'd gotten worse off financially under Biden's presidency. Just 33% of college-educated voters said the same.

One more departure in the 2024 election bears note: Even with her overall outcome, Harris won independent voters, 50-45%. Independents often -- but not always -- vote with the winner.

On issues, the most striking result by far was the share of people overall saying they've gotten worse off financially under the current administration, 45%. That was the highest in exit polls that have asked the question, even surpassing the 42% worse off in 2008, in the teeth of the Great Recession. It was up from 20% four years ago, a more than doubling of the worse-off population under the administration in which Harris is No 2.

Conversely, a mere 24% this year said they'd become better off under Biden, a question Trump asked repeatedly at his campaign rallies.

Biden took the heat, with just a 40% job approval rating, with 58% disapproving, the lowest approval for an incumbent president in exit polls since President George W. Bush's 27% as he left office in 2008.

But Harris took the heat, as well.